Musk once said that anyone who bet short on Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) would be “crushed,” including Bill Gates. But in fact, short sellers have been the biggest winners, raking in $16.2 billion over the past three months.

In July 2023, Elon Musk challenged short sellers on the X platform: “When Tesla fully solves the self-driving problem and produces Optimus at scale, everyone who sells short will be crushed. Even Gates.” Musk’s strong warning was like a declaration of war, aimed at investors who bet on Tesla’s stock to decline, including Bill Gates.

But less than a year later, the tables have turned. It’s not the short sellers who are plunging, it’s Tesla’s stock. Tesla’s stock has fallen 53% from its December peak, now hovering around $225. Contrary to Musk’s predictions, short sellers have made a whopping $16.2 billion in profits in the past three months alone, according to Business Insider.

Bill Gates has publicly disclosed his short position in Tesla stock since 2022, sparking tensions between the two billionaires. But their confrontation is not just about finances.

When Gates approached Musk about climate change initiatives, Musk flatly refused, saying, “I cannot seriously consider your climate change philanthropy when you are betting on Tesla, the company doing the most to solve the problem, to fail.” The text messages, released by Musk himself, cemented the long-standing feud between the two billionaires.

Elon Musk once warned that Tesla short sellers would be “crushed,” but in fact, they just made $16.2 billion as Tesla shares plunged more than 50%.

There are several reasons why Tesla’s stock is plunging, creating a golden opportunity for short sellers:

Pressure from China: Chinese electric car manufacturers are not only competing with Tesla but also directly threatening it. BYD – Tesla’s strong rival in China – has just launched super-fast charging technology, allowing cars to run 400 km after only 5 minutes of charging. This makes it difficult for Tesla in the technology race.

Wall Street’s confidence shaken: RBC Bank has just lowered its Tesla stock price forecast from $440 to $320, due to concerns about the progress of developing self-driving technology and autonomous taxis.

Declining sales in China: In February, Tesla car sales in China fell 49% compared to the same period last year, making investors more worried.

While Musk continues to pursue far-reaching ambitions—like sending Optimus robots to Mars by 2026—that’s not enough to reassure shareholders. When Musk talks about a future in space, investors are only concerned with the fact that Tesla’s position is being eroded here on Earth.

Musk isn’t just warning about short-term volatility. He’s betting on a future where Tesla leads the way in self-driving cars and robotics, ushering in a new revolution. If that scenario comes to fruition, today’s massive short-sellers’ gains could be “pinches” compared to what Tesla can achieve in the future.

The market is always volatile—stocks go up and down, and Tesla may recover. What’s certain is that Musk never stops. Whether it’s electric cars, AI, or autonomous robots, he keeps moving forward.

Even Bill Gates, who once bet on Tesla’s decline, can’t deny Musk’s influence. “I admire what he’s done with SpaceX and Tesla,” Gates admitted in a recent interview with The Independent. He even credited Tesla with pushing the electric car industry forward, calling it a “huge contribution” to the fight against climate change.